Paper 8 -- Probabilistic Congestion Management

A new approach to airspace congestion management is presented, in which uncertainties in predicting traffic levels and airspace capacity are quantified and considered in developing congestion resolutions.Such a probabilistic approach has the potential to greatly improve decision-making. Probabilistic models for predicting traffic demand are presented, with results, and an initial model for predicting airspace capacity is outlined.Candidate displays and human factors issues for use of probabilistic information are discussed, and a probabilistic decision-making framework for en route congestion management is presented.