Paper 20 -- A Quantitative Model for En Route Error Rate Analysis

In this paper we demonstrate that the rate of en-route operational errors increases faster than the increase in traffic. We propose a model that explains this relationship, which allows us to compare operational error rates for periods with different traffic levels. We use this model to show that URET, a controller decision support tool recently deployed by the FAA, has significantly reduced the rate of operational errors. These results have important implications for analyzing the safety and capacity impact of new en-route automation systems being proposed as part the next generation air transportation systems for the United States and Europe.