Paper 51 -- Safety risk analysis of runway incursion alert systems in the tower and cockpit by multi-agent systemic accident modelling

Runway incursion alert systems in air traffic control towers and cockpits are intended to reduce runway incursion risk. Analysis of the effectiveness of such systems is challenging, because of the context-dependent distributed and dynamic interactions of multiple human operators and technical systems in a runway incursion scenario. Recent views in the safety literature indicate that for risk assessment of such complex scenarios, we need systemic accident modelling, which considers accidents as emergent phenomena from the performance variability of a system. This paper uses multi-agent situation awareness as a prime concept for systemic accident modelling of a runway incursion scenario. Accident risk results are provided for the effectiveness of alert systems in the tower and cockpit for various contextual conditions.